The Average Hybrid Is $14,884 Cheaper Than The Average Electric Car

It’s Thursday and I’m tempted to lead with another story about Tesla reportedly walking away from its gigacasting plans. Am I tired of Tesla TMDs? A little, so instead lemme reiterate that hybrids continue to be way more affordable than electric cars and this is driving the market.

Is that reflected in the numbers? It is if you’re Toyota, which saw another strong April in spite of having one fewer selling day. And then I’ll talk about Tesla’s gigacasting thing, because it speaks to larger plans by the automaker that seem sort of mystifying.

Finally, I’ll end by talking about the Ford Maverick. We all love the Maverick. You know who also loves the Maverick? Ford. Ford loves the Maverick so much that it’s constantly bringing the Maverick back to dealerships. Some would call this “an annoying and disappointing preponderance of recalls” but some… might call it love.

Hybrids Are Popular Because Hybrids Make Sense And Are Cheap

Ok, so the Year of the Hybrid has happened, and I don’t see any reason why it shouldn’t continue to be so for the last seven months of the year.

But why?

I think there are three key reasons:

• Consumer Preference: I think anti-environmentalism will continue to wane as people see the very real consequences of climate change. This doesn’t mean consumers will all buy EVs immediately as hybrids offer a reasonable transition for people who are unsure about electric cars/charging.
• Choice: More automakers are offering more hybrids on more models. The number of hybrid models is growing every year, giving buyers more choice. And then there are places where there is no choice. For instance, the 2025 Toyota Camry is only available as a hybrid, joining the Sienna in that category.
• Affordability: Hybrids use less fuel, which immediately makes them more affordable to operate than their gas-powered counterparts. They’re also way, way cheaper than electric cars.

Let’s dive into that last bit, courtesy of this Barrons article.

According to Cars.com, hybrids and plug-in hybrid vehicles, or PHEVs, average $48,918, while the average price for an all-battery electric vehicle is $63,802. That’s a difference of $14,884. The lack of affordability continues to weigh heavily on EV sales growth.

And weigh it has. Sales of battery electric vehicles, or BEVs, grew just 7% year over year in the first quarter of 2024, according to data provider WardsAuto, down from 43% year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. Sales of hybrids—both traditional and plug-in—grew about 65% year over year.

It’s basically $15k cheaper to get a hybrid than a BEV, though it depends a lot on what you’re looking to buy. This is especially true as incentives for EVs are extremely high right now, with Toyota giving few discounts on RAV4 Hybrids but plenty of deals on the bZ4x EV.

The best deals right now in the market seem to be on electric car leases as automakers are discounting cars plus taking advantage of the $7,500 tax credit. If you can make an EV work in your life and want something new, an EV lease is likely the most affordable option.

Seriously, here’s a lease deal on a bZ4X for $1,999 down and $160 a month. That specific deal is expired, but I’ve been seeing tons of similar deals pop up on Twitter.

Toyota Has Another Banger Month

Toyota, a seller of many hybrids is, unsurprisingly, having a great month. According to Automotive News, Toyota saw a 13.7% lift in sales in April of 2024 compared to April 2023, putting it at about 18.5% year-over-year thus far.

Those are good numbers and far out-pacing the expected -2% decline for the market as a whole. How’s the company doing it? From AN:

Toyota Motor Corp., behind another surge in hybrid deliveries, posted a double-digit increase in U.S. sales in April for the sixth straight month while Honda Motor Co. volume edged up 0.4 percent — with both automakers benefiting from rising inventories.

Volume rose 14 percent to 211,818, with electrified vehicle sales jumping 56 percent to 77,228, Toyota Motor said Wednesday. Sales increased 15 percent at the Toyota division and 4.8 percent at Lexus.

Curiously, the Prius was down 33% year-over-year, but RAV4 and Corolla sales more than made up for it. Camry and Tacoma sales were both down, but those cars are being swapped out for entirely new models so that’s not a big surprise.

Honda is a bit of a question mark. The automaker posted a slight increase for the month, but “electrified vehicles” sales were down. For Honda, this means mostly hybrids as the Prologue is only just available to be ordered. Hybrid sales are up for the year, but there was a slip, primarily in Accord sales. Is this a supply issue? I’ve reached out to Honda to explain.

Reuters: Tesla Walking Back Gigacasting Plans

I’ve already covered how Tesla made gigacasting the most important word in the car industry, but just because everyone is excited about it doesn’t mean that Tesla can’t change its mind about the technology. As we’re learning, Tesla loves changing its mind.

It’s how we end up with this Reuters headline: “Exclusive: Tesla retreats from next-generation ‘gigacasting’ manufacturing process”

So what’s happening, exactly?

Last year, as Tesla developed a new small-vehicle platform, it aimed to punch out the underbody in a single piece, Reuters exclusively reported last September, citing five sources familiar with the automaker’s gigacasting operations. The long-term goal was to radically simplify manufacturing and slash costs.

But Tesla has since halted the effort, opting to stick with its more proven method of casting vehicle underbodies in three pieces: two gigacasted front and rear sections and a midsection made of aluminum and steel frames to store batteries, according to the two sources familiar with the matter. That is largely the same three-piece method the company has used for its last two new models, the Model Y crossover SUV and the Cybertruck pickup.

Why this is happening is somewhat a matter of speculation, but this is consistent with Tesla deciding not to do a $25,000 high-volume, low-cost EV and instead focus on AI/robotaxi development. Making the underbody with one big cast could potentially save a ton of money, but the cost of creating that kind of setup is huge and Tesla is trying to save money.

Gigasting is hard! It also probably doesn’t help that GM bought one of Tesla’s gigacasting suppliers.

Besides, if the underlying tech makes the new entry-level car so much more valuable, the theory might go, it’s worth paying a little extra for it and thus trying to remove cost isn’t as big of a deal. I think this is a wrong-headed approach, but that seems to be the plan.

WTF Ford Maverick?

We are Ford Maverick stans around here and, if I could go back in time, I’d have ordered a Maverick XLT on Day 1 when they were still super cheap and gotten it just in time to trade in my Subaru for way over its usual value due to the supply crunch. I didn’t do that, but I still want a normally-priced Maverick.

I’d have probably been a little peeved at this point, however, that the truck might have been recalled seven times already. Ford is in the process of fixing its quality issues, but that does little good for Maverick owners, who have seen more recalls than Guy Pearce in Momento.

So far the recalls have ranged from serious (fire risk due to engine failure) to piddlier (inoperative trailer taillights). If I’m counting correctly, more than half of the recalls are related to taillights, turn signals, or instrument panels.

Here’s the latest one, via NHTSA:

The Body Control Module (BCM) may falsely detect a current overload on one
or both of the rear position lamp circuits, resulting in one or both of the lamps
to be deactivated during a drive cycle. This issue does not affect headlights,
stop lamps (including Center High Mount Stop Lamp), or turn signal functions.

Losing taillights is not good! There’s an easy software fix to this and owners will be notified, possibly while they’re in line to get another recall fixed.

What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD

A two-fer? Sure. Mechajaz was happy to see Gorillaz in yesterday’s TMD and mentioned that the album “Demon Days” is an all-timer. It is! How does one even pick a song on this album? “Feel Good Inc” is the obvious one, as is “Dirty Harry” but I’m a sucker for MF Doom in “November Has Come.”

She wore a filled-in thong
A billabong
And said, nah, fo’realla
The Villain on a Gorilla jawn?

So good.

The Big Question

Why did Honda hybrid sales drop in April? Honda should get back to me, but I’d love to hear a theory. I’ll update the post when they all wake up and tell me.