Exports between US and China could see sharp declines from AI-powered cyberattacks: study

June 13, 2024

17 2 minutes read

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“In contrast, the US benefits from more diversified export markets, which helps cushion the blow from such attacks.”

The findings suggest some Chinese exports find their way to the US through intermediary nations. Photo: Shutterstock

Researchers from the Oxford Brookes Business School in Britain and the School of Information Technology and Computer Science at Nile University in Egypt published their findings in the peer-reviewed journal Risk Analysis last week.

Looking at the impacts of AI-driven cyberattacks on global trade, the researchers said such incursions use algorithms to scan systems for vulnerabilities faster and at a larger scale than manual attacks.

What is more, AI-driven malware can mutate its code to evade detection and removal, rendering existing cybersecurity measures less effective, said Rehab Osman of Oxford Brookes University and Sherif Elgendy, a cybersecurity engineer.

“These sophisticated attacks can autonomously learn and evolve tactics based on real-time feedback and environmental changes, making them highly adaptive and difficult to counter,” the researchers said.

Such attacks could paralyse payment systems, load stock predictions with errors and delay deliveries, halting transactions and eroding consumer confidence in digital platforms, they added.

In an intense cyberthreat scenario in which Chinese exports to the US were projected to plummet by almost a quarter, exports to South Korea would grow by 4.5 per cent. Those to Japan would rise by 5.2 per cent, with those to the rest of Asia up 6.4 per cent.

“This suggests that some Chinese exports find their way to the US through these intermediary nations,” they said.

Similarly, when US exports to China dropped by more than 20 per cent in a high-level threat scenario, upticks would be seen in countries like India and Japan as well as in North and Latin America, pointing to a complex re-routing of trade flows.

The high-level cyberthreat projections also found that China’s real GDP (nominal GDP adjusted for inflation) would decrease by 2.2 per cent. The real GDP of the US would retreat by 1.4 per cent and the European Union’s by 1.35 per cent.

The researchers said the significant decline in China illustrated the key role of digital technologies and interconnected supply chains in its economy.

They also warned that such disruptions in the world’s two largest economies would extend to other parts of the world via the global supply chain.

“The decline in China’s exports, which account for more than one-fifth of its GDP, has a ripple effect on the global economy. As key components of the supply chain are disrupted, industries worldwide experience delays, increased costs and inefficiencies.”

To counter the evolving cyberthreats attempted by state-sponsored actors, criminals, terrorists or hackers driven by different motives, governments and businesses should invest in cybersecurity technologies, the researchers said.

These include AI-driven defence systems that can detect and respond to threats as they are launched.

“By investing in advanced technologies, fostering international cooperation and promoting cybersecurity awareness, economies can enhance their resilience and mitigate the risks posed by AI-driven cyberthreats,” they said.

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June 13, 2024

17 2 minutes read