Geely Automobile Holdings Limited (HKG:175) Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Appear To Be Mixed : Is There A Clear Direction For The Stock?

Geely Automobile Holdings (HKG:175) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 16% over the last three months. But the company’s key financial indicators appear to be differing across the board and that makes us question whether or not the company’s current share price momentum can be maintained. Specifically, we decided to study Geely Automobile Holdings’ ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

Check out our latest analysis for Geely Automobile Holdings

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders’ Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Geely Automobile Holdings is:

5.8% = CN¥4.9b ÷ CN¥85b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

The ‘return’ is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each HK$1 of shareholders’ capital it has, the company made HK$0.06 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we’ve learned that ROE is a measure of a company’s profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or “retain”, we are then able to evaluate a company’s future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don’t have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of Geely Automobile Holdings’ Earnings Growth And 5.8% ROE

At first glance, Geely Automobile Holdings’ ROE doesn’t look very promising. We then compared the company’s ROE to the broader industry and were disappointed to see that the ROE is lower than the industry average of 10%. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 20% seen by Geely Automobile Holdings over the last five years is not surprising. We believe that there also might be other aspects that are negatively influencing the company’s earnings prospects. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

That being said, we compared Geely Automobile Holdings’ performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 13% in the same 5-year period.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company’s expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock’s future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Geely Automobile Holdings is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Geely Automobile Holdings Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

In spite of a normal three-year median payout ratio of 36% (that is, a retention ratio of 64%), the fact that Geely Automobile Holdings’ earnings have shrunk is quite puzzling. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For example, the business has faced some headwinds.

In addition, Geely Automobile Holdings has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Based on the latest analysts’ estimates, we found that the company’s future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 36%. Still, forecasts suggest that Geely Automobile Holdings’ future ROE will rise to 11% even though the the company’s payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

Summary

In total, we’re a bit ambivalent about Geely Automobile Holdings’ performance. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company’s earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.