Rivian Earnings Are Coming. They Could Be Wild for the EV Stock.
Investors are worried about electric-vehicle demand. First-quarter numbers from
can soothe—or aggravate—those fears.
Whatever the company reports, investors should brace for a big stock reaction based on recent trading.
Rivian reports first-quarter results after the close of trading on Tuesday. Wall Street is looking for a per-share loss of $1.15 from sales of just under $1.2 billion. A year ago, in the first quarter of 2023, Rivian reported a $1.25 per-share loss from sales of $661 million.
Guidance should be as important, or more important, than first-quarter numbers. What investors hope to see is improving demand.
In February, Rivian guided full-year production to about 57,000 units, while Wall Street was looking for sales of about 66,000. Production and sales should closely approximate each other.
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That was a disappointment and shares dropped 26% in response.
A guidance boost is possible, though. Rivian made 13,980 units in the first quarter—leaving about 43,000 to hit guidance, or about 10,800 per quarter. Based on recent quarterly production, Rivian shouldn’t have trouble hitting that number.
It just has to sell the cars it makes. Selling expensive EVs hasn’t been easy lately.
reported first-quarter sales of $173 million, up about 16% year over year on Monday evening. But about $51 million came from the Saudi government, which owns the majority of Lucid stock. Excluding related-party transactions, sales fell almost 20% year over year.
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Lucid cars qualify as expensive. The Saudi government paid roughly $100,000 per car in the quarter while other buyers paid about $80,000. The average price for a Rivian in the first quarter is expected to be about $86,000.
Lucid shares were down 8.5% in premarket trading following earnings, at $2.79 each, while
futures were up about 0.1% and
futures were down about 0.2%. Rivian shares were up 5.1% at $10.86. Investors might be adjusting their Rivian positions ahead of earnings. Lucid shares gained 9.5% on Monday ahead of its first-quarter earnings report.
Some post-earnings stock volatility looks almost assured. Options markets imply Rivian shares will move roughly 15%, up or down, after earnings. Shares have moved about 10% on average after the past four quarterly reports. Shares dropped three times and rose once over that span, including the 26% drop after reporting fourth-quarter numbers in February.
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Rivan management will host a conference call at 5 p.m. Eastern time to discuss the results.
Coming into Tuesday trading, Rivian stock is off about 56% so far this year.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
