Taiwan military drones unlikely to hasten US ‘hellscape’ against mainland Chinese attack

The report said private contractors will provide second-generation short-range uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), as well as miniature, target acquisition, surveillance, ship-based and land-based drones for military use.

The acquisition of these seven drone types “has already factored in existing artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) technologies”, the report said.

Capabilities will include one-button take-off, autonomous return, path planning flight, dynamic target tracking, and coordinate distance calculation “to reduce operator workload, minimise flight risks and enhance operational efficiency”, it said.

The ministry underscored the significance of drones within its broader military plans, citing their widespread use in recent conflicts, including last year’s Azerbaijani offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The military armaments bureau and the economics ministry will jointly explore ways to enhance the island’s defence capabilities by integrating domestic sources and production capacity while avoiding reliance on vulnerable “red supply chains”, it said.

The report also anticipates the inclusion of emerging AI technologies in future drone development plans.

Su Tzu-yun, a senior analyst at the Institute for National Defence and Security Research, a government think tank, said the drones and UAVs were significant in “constructing asymmetric warfare strategies and enhancing methods to counter adversaries”.

“Drones’ relatively small size makes them difficult to detect on radar screens. The integration of AI technology primarily serves to assist decision-making systems, enabling autonomous attacks in scenarios where communication is disrupted,” he said.

Despite the planned acquisition, it will take time for the drones to become fully militarily operational, the experts said.

The legislature’s foreign relations and defence committee head Wang Ting-yu, from the ruling independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, said the UAVs must be integrated with military units before they can be effectively deployed.

“Ensuring efficient and effective operations requires validation methods tailored to each military branch and command unit,” he said.

According to Wang, the key to successful AI integration will lie in how the Chung-Shan Institute and the local defence industry incorporate AI into decision-making processes and C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) systems.

Military commentator Lu De-yun, a former defence ministry press secretary, noted that AI-equipped drones are not new, with most local UAVs possessing the capability for at least a decade.

“These drones typically feature functions such as path planning flight, target tracking, and distance calculation, enabling them to record flight paths and return to their original starting points,” he said, adding that mainland China’s drones share similar functionalities.

According to Lu, Taiwan is intensifying its efforts to keep pace with the mainland and the US, both of which are extensively using UAVs. But the “hellscape” strategy proposed by the American Indo-Pacific Command chief is still some way off.

Admiral Samuel Paparo said the plan – to thwart a mainland attack on the island by unleashing an unmanageable swarm of drones in the Taiwan Strait – aims to make Beijing “miserable for a month” and give the US crucial response time.

Beijing regards Taiwan as part of China, to be reunited with the mainland by force, if necessary. The US, like most countries, does not recognise the island but Washington is opposed to any unilateral change to the status quo.

03:11

Mainland China launches PLA blockade around Taiwan, 3 days after William Lai speech

Mainland China launches PLA blockade around Taiwan, 3 days after William Lai speech

According to Lu, Paparo’s warfare concept is still in the planning stages and “would require advanced AI applications and thousands of drones”, but he noted that “the US is actively working on this approach”.

Lu said that the application of AI is intended to empower a few individuals to control hundreds, or even thousands of UAVs. “However, implementing such a strategy in the near term remains unlikely.”

Taiwanese Defence Minister Wellington Koo acknowledged that Taiwan lacks enough drones to fully support the United States’ “hellscape” strategy and said increasing the number of UAVs and further strategic coordination with the US were “essential steps”.

“The military will continue to acquire various types of drones through multiple channels to rapidly build combat capabilities for defence operations,” he said.